Every preacher's favourite quote

If you've grown up as a Christian, then you have surely heard "every preacher's favourite quote":

"When we arrive to heaven, we will be surprised by three things. First, that some saints who we've believed should be in heaven didn't actually make it. Second, that many of those who we've called sinners are there. And the biggest surprise of all: that we, ourselves, made it too."

I like to call this a prediction paradox: the less we know about the subject, the bolder we are about making predictions.

Scientists are no different from believers. Most of their predictions completely miss the mark, or, are placed so far in the future that as such, make little or no relevance to us. Somehow, it is much more difficult to predict what will happen in ten years from now, than in a thousand years. Apparently, the problem with the future is that we cling onto the past so hard, all those great novel ideas simply have no chance to develop and blossom. In other words, humans are terrible risk takers.

Here is my problem: in order to stay in the watch business, I should be able to predict the future with at least some degree of accuracy.
The absolutely crucial question is this one: would we in one hundred years from now still wear watches that display the time in a direct, analogue way? Meaning: are we going to wear watches with hands or digital watches, which display time with numbers?

Before we go any further, here is my original prediction on a completely different subject. I predict that in one hundred years from now, all men's pants will still have a zipper. And that zipper is going to be in exactly the same place that it is today. I also predict that humans will still use screwdrivers and hammers, and both tools will look exactly as they look today.

In other words, some devices are simply perfected by our rigid human anatomy, while others are perfected by necessity and functionality.

To extrapolate to watches: there is no better place to place a wrist watch, then to strap it to your wrist. And there is no easier way to tell the time but to 'read it' from the relative position of hour and minute hands. We've tried digital readouts, but digitalization never took off. For two simple reasons: firstly, we've been reading analogue time for at least 800 years, so we are used to it. Secondly, and more importantly, 13:06:15 can not be processed subconsciously because digital format requires mental effort.

There are numerous advantages to a watch with hands: for example, we can tell time fairly accurately even with the hour hand alone (digital watches displaying hours only are terribly inaccurate). The analogue works because it make sense: the hour hand follows the rotation of earth around it's axis (and especially so with watches with a 24 hours format). On the other hand, digital watches merely reinterpret analogue time in different format.

Which brings us to the final conclusion - and a prediction. The time itself, as we can see it and experience it, is an analogue phenomenon. And as long as earth continues to turn around it's axis, it would only make sense to display it in a same way.

The future is bright; let's invest in a hands making machine!

Every preacher's favourite quote

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